The first ATP Masters 1000 clay-court tournament of 2024 is underway. The Monte Carlo event marks a pivotal point in the ATP clay season, preceding Madrid and Rome on the road to the French Open. Will clay-court specialists leverage their comfort on this surface? Or will players who excelled at Indian Wells and Miami carry their momentum onto the European clay? Let’s analyze a few intriguing second-round matches scheduled for Tuesday:
ATP Monte Carlo Match Analysis
Monfils – Bublik: Time 15:30
H2H: 2-1
Alexander Bublik recently entered the ATP top 10 and currently sits just outside it. This year, he has secured 13 tour victories, while Gael Monfils has only managed three. They have faced each other only three times, with their last encounter being on hardcourt in 2023. Both players have experienced significant career shifts since then, most notably Bublik’s ascent on the tour.
Best Bet to Make
A prolonged match seems likely. While Bublik is the stronger player, Monfils, competing in Monte Carlo, should benefit from strong French crowd support. The surface transition from hardcourt to clay introduces an additional layer of unpredictability, suggesting a tight contest. Neither player performed exceptionally well in Indian Wells or Miami, so Bublik isn’t on a significant winning streak; most of his 2024 victories came earlier in the season. Betting on the ‘over’ for total games appears to offer good value. Therefore, wagering on ‘over’ for the total number of games is a strong recommendation.
Recommended bet: Over 22.5 games
Norrie – De Minaur: Time 15:30
H2H: 3-2
Alex De Minaur is a current ATP top 10 player, while Cameron Norrie, a former Indian Wells champion, has seen his form dip. Despite this, Norrie secured their most recent match victory and holds a 3-2 lead in their head-to-head record. However, four of their five encounters have been on hardcourt, with De Minaur claiming their sole clay-court match. Known for his strong defensive play, De Minaur will likely find the slower clay surface advantageous, making it more challenging for Norrie to generate winners.
Best Bet to Make
The game spread is the crucial factor here. De Minaur, having suffered a loss to Norrie at Indian Wells, will undoubtedly be seeking revenge. The shift to a clay surface should significantly favor his game. De Minaur doesn’t need to dominate Norrie entirely to cover a -3.5 game spread; winning two sets by a margin of two games each would suffice, a feat he is certainly capable of achieving in Monte Carlo. Thus, backing De Minaur to win with a handicap is a value bet.
Recommended bet: De Minaur -3.5 games
Popyrin– Ruud: Time 14:00
H2H: 1-1
Alexei Popyrin is set to face ninth seed Casper Ruud in an intriguing early-round match. Popyrin, known for his powerful serve, is typically considered a threat on hardcourts or grass. However, he notably defeated Ruud in Monte Carlo last year in a tight three-set encounter (7-5 in the third). The question remains whether he can replicate that performance. Ruud, a multiple French Open finalist, is a well-established clay-court specialist who thrives on red clay.
Best Bet to Make
Alexei Popyrin’s recent loss to Frances Tiafoe—a player not particularly known for his clay-court prowess—at the Houston ATP event last week does not bode well for his upcoming match against Ruud. It’s highly improbable that Ruud will suffer consecutive losses to the same lower-ranked opponent on his preferred surface. Ruud is generally reliable in defeating opponents he’s expected to beat, especially on clay. This match is anticipated to conclude in two sets, with neither set extending beyond 10 total games. Consequently, betting on ‘under 21.5 games’ is a definite value bet.
Recommended bet: Under 21.5 games
